European airline executives meet today in Brussels amid the sounds of war in the Middle East and the heavy shadow of rising oil prices, seeking to resist the EU’s green agenda and the complex, as the industry calls them, rules regarding sustainable aviation fuels.
Citing a lack of available supply and prohibitively high costs, European airlines are expected to ask European regulatory authorities to lift Brussels’ planned rules on the use of sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF) for jet engines, which are set to take effect in 2030.
The green fuel industry and environmental organizations insist that this change is necessary to reduce the industry’s short-term dependence on oil and the carbon footprint of air travel, as sustainable fuels have zero net emissions or lower emissions than regular jet fuel.
While sustainability is at the forefront, the war in Iran and oil prices above $100 a barrel will likely dominate the discussions.
The Middle East conflict, now in its third week, has caused disruption to air travel, with thousands of flights cancelled or diverted and most of the airspace over the Gulf closed amid fears of missile and drone attacks.
Aircraft fuel prices have “skyrocketed,” increasing operational costs, with prices doubling in Europe and rising nearly 80% in Asia since the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February.
In this context, Air France-KLM and SAS have already stated that they will have to increase ticket prices due to the increasing cost of fuel, while Finnair has warned of the risk of exhausting air fuel reserves due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Christian Maisner, head of human resources at GE Aerospace, an aircraft engine manufacturer, told Reuters that the industry is moving forward with investments in fuel-saving technology despite the uncertainty.
“No matter how serious things are in the world… we don’t see airlines stopping deliveries of new planes. What it could do is put more emphasis on efficiency, that is, fuel consumption,” he said.
Analysts say that European tourists are likely to travel closer to their countries of residence to reduce flight time and avoid long flights over the Middle East. However, it is not yet clear whether the Gulf War will lead to a post-war transition to European airlines in the long run, given the historical strength of the Gulf hubs in the market.
Ryanair CEO, Michael O’Leary, said that the low-cost airline expects more bookings for travel within Europe, while British Airways is adding more flights to destinations such as the Caribbean, which avoid flying over Middle Eastern airspace.
