The outlook for the German tourism market remains good this year according to market researchers while travel agents are slightly more optimistic about sales prospects despite slow bookings to date.
Leading market researchers remain optimistic that Germans will travel more than ever this year despite the series of terror attacks in various destinations in recent weeks and months.
Tourism research network FUR expects Germans to take more than 70 million holiday trips in 2016, driven by positive economic trends such as stable employment levels and rising wages. This would be a 2% increase on last year while spending could rise 4% to about €69 billion, according to the results of an online survey conducted in November 2015.
However, the FUR survey does not reflect the impact of the subsequent terror attacks in Paris and Istanbul on German travel demand. These will be taken into account by the in-depth annual FUR survey which will be presented at ITB Berlin in March.
Researcher Martin Lohmann, FUR’s chief adviser, who presented the survey results at the CMT trade fair in Stuttgart, said: “Germans are very reliable tourists.” The main trends this year will be similar to last year, with more cruises, city trips and short holidays, he predicted.
In terms of destinations, Germany will remain number one this year with about 30% of trips, followed by Spain, Italy, Turkey and Austria. These five most popular destinations traditionally account for about two thirds of all holidays every year. However, Lohmann predicted that Germans could go on more long-haul holidays this year.
Market researchers GfK predict that travel demand will start to improve soon following weak sales after the Paris and Istanbul terror attacks. “We expect demand to recover rapidly and that Germans will again plan more days on holidays in 2016 than last year,” said Roland Gassner, key account director GfK Travel & Logistics, at the fvw Destination Germany Day at the CMT fair in Stuttgart. GfK expects a 1.8% rise in the total number of days spent on holiday.
Meanwhile, German travel agents are slightly more optimistic about the outlook for this year despite the continued slow booking trend in recent weeks, according to the monthly fvw sales climate index. This remained at 95.1 points at the start of January, roughly the same level as in December. The weak sales in December were reflected in a 10 percentage point rise to 36% of respondents who said they sold less in recent months than in the previous year and a 7 percentage point drop to 25% who said they sold more. About 40% said they had stable sales.
But despite these figures, agents were slightly more optimistic about the outlook at the start of January, which traditionally marks the start of a strong booking period. The percentage of those expecting better demand in the coming months rose from 17% last month to 23% this month. At present, agencies are apparently fairly full but customers are not making as many bookings as usual, and are instead waiting with their decisions.
