IATA: Potential Paths for Recovery into the Medium- and Long-run


In its latest report IATA studies and highlights the potential paths for recovery into the medium and long run.


  • Air traffic has hit a turning point in mid-2020 but remains lower than usual
    • Baseline forecasts suggest recovery is not expected until 2023
    • There remains uncertainty in the outlook and recovery could be delayed
    • Long-run growth potential is evident but with risks more skewed to the downside


  • The global number of flights is increasing, but still down 60% vs 1 January
  • Regional recovery has been mixed, with a recent surge from European carriers
  • Domestic travel has recovered more quickly than international, as expected
  • Traffic volumes suggest April is the low point, but with only a modest recovery
  • Global macro backdrop has softened as the virus has persisted & evolved
  • Three broad areas of uncertainty in the outlook (Enduring travel restrictions, economic uncertainty & loss in GDP, Weakened consumer confidence)
  • Travel restrictions will be lifted sequentially
  • Economic recovery will begin in H2, but with lingering impacts
  • Unemployment impact is seemingly limited for now (14% in Q3 for USA and Canada, 8% for Eurozone)
  • But there is significant underemployment, and rises to come in some markets
  • Air passenger demand is not expected to regain 2019 levels until 2023
  • Domestic passenger demand should recover ahead of international
  • Domestic and short-haul passengers will remain important
  • Importance of long-haul demand is one key factor for recovery
  • Two short-term scenarios, incorporating macroeconomic & consumer drivers
  • Passenger numbers will recover their 2019 level by 2023 (baseline scenario) for up to 30%
  • Risks and uncertainty remains tilted to the downside
  • Consumer confidence remains key, even as business sentiment has lifted
  • Potential for long-run growth, but with risks skewed more to the downside

You can read HERE the full presentation of the projected recovery paths

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