The risk is presented in a report on the global aircraft fleet by aviation analytics firm Cirium, citing a five percentage point decline in the number of short-term deliveries by 2027 due to problems in the supply chain.
The independent forecast reveals that 45,900 aircraft are projected to be delivered worldwide over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of $3.3 trillion, as airlines continue to invest in newer and more viable aircraft.
Around 98% of these will be passenger aircraft, as the company expects capacity to grow by 4.4% per year.
However, the aviation industry continues to face supply chain issues that are delaying aircraft deliveries, with the report predicting 5% fewer between 2024-2027 due to a shortage of parts.
A total of 26,100 aircraft are currently in service, up 5% compared to January 2020, when the pandemic first broke out.
The increase is due to the delivery and operation of single-aisle aircraft – a 13% increase – with the number of two-aisle aircraft falling 3% short of pre-pandemic levels.
The number of active regional aircraft also remains 8% below pre-pandemic levels, with turboprops showing the largest decline of 13%.
Single-aisle aircraft are expected to lead the industry’s growth over the next 20 years, with a projected annual growth rate of 3.9%, up from 3.3% for two-aisle aircraft, as long-haul traffic continues to show slower growth since the pandemic.
Regional aircraft are forecast to grow more moderately at an overall annual rate of 0.8%.
Focus on Asia
Asia will continue to be the main region for aircraft fleet growth, taking almost half (45%) of deliveries over the next two decades, of which 20% will be in China, reaching almost all of North America.
Growth will also be fuelled by the rise of commercial aviation in India, where the number of passenger aircraft is projected to grow from 720 at the end of 2023 to more than 3,800 over the next 20 years.
Commenting on the data in the report, Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s Head of Cirium, Rob Morris, said: “As we continue to enter the next cycle of growth in the aviation industry, our new fleet forecast demonstrates the continued demand for new aircraft as airlines seek to renew and expand their fleets. However, it is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing activities will continue to cause delays for OEMs [Original Equipment Manufacturers], leading to uncertain delivery schedules for many airlines, and this has been factored into our forecast.”
According to him, with markets such as India expected to see significant growth, it is clear that the next 20 years will be increasingly competitive for manufacturers, with airlines continuing to invest in their fleets.
“The forecast also demonstrates the challenge of sustainability and net-zero as fleet growth is balanced with the efficiency of new aircraft to achieve per unit emissions reductions,” Morris concluded.
