High aviation fuel prices — a negative consequence of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East — combined with Germany’s weak economy and high airport taxes are creating a “suffocating mix” for the operation of German airports. In this context, the German Airports Association (ADV) forecasts that passenger numbers at the country’s airports will remain — at best — stagnant in 2026. At the same time, some airports are expected to face capacity reductions of up to 10%.
According to Ralph Beisel, several factors are converging to create this situation. Airlines are already burdened by the sharp rise in fuel prices, which in Germany is being worsened by the weak economy and disproportionately high taxation. The German Airports Association stresses that summer travel is not currently at risk; however, it recommends a realistic assessment of the economic situation.
Pressure on secondary routes
Persistently high jet fuel prices are putting financial pressure on air traffic across Europe. Experience shows that airlines usually respond in such situations by first reassessing individual routes and capacities.
According to the German Airports Association, airlines are already reassessing routes and capacities. In this context, connections with low demand or limited profit margins are being significantly affected.
Mr. Ralph Beisel referred mainly to low-cost airlines, which have removed secondary tourist routes from their schedules. The partial withdrawal of Ryanair from Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER) demonstrates how vulnerable business models — especially those heavily dependent on pricing — are to rising operating and infrastructure costs.
According to Mr. Ralph Beisel, under a negative scenario, some airports could face capacity declines of up to ten percentage points. If this were to apply across all airports, as many as 20 million passengers could be affected. As a result, some destinations may no longer be served at all, while others would be connected less frequently, with ticket prices on those routes rising sharply.
