With the war in the Middle East changing the landscape of travel demand, a 10% drop in bookings for Greece in the German tourism market has been recorded, while Spain appears to be the winner under the new conditions, as German holidaymakers seem to be showing their confidence in the western Mediterranean.
As the latest data from Travel Data + Analytics (TDA) reveal, German demand for organized holidays is shifting from mid-range destinations in Eastern Europe – with the region recording significant losses of 34% in March compared to the same month last year – to safer destinations in Western Europe.
In this context, Spain emerged as the top choice, with the mainland Spain showing a 32% increase, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands each recording a 15% increase, while medium-haul flights to western Spain also saw a 16% rise, proving that the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has one winner, Spain.
Meanwhile, demand for Italy and Portugal increased by 8% and 3%, respectively. While the negative results of March are an exception for land travel (+2%), in contrast, cruises recorded losses of 18%.
Distant destinations, such as the Maldives and Thailand, are the big losers, while pressure has been exerted on both Turkey and Egypt, with Turkey being a reference example, as before the start of the war in Iran it was the destination with the most bookings for the upcoming summer, with an increase of over 12% compared to the previous year. However, after the losses in March, which increased to 46%, the increase in revenue has shrunk to 3% and Turkey has fallen to second place in the ranking of the most popular countries for German holidaymakers this summer.
The situation is similar in Egypt, where the previous 15% increase in total sales for the summer period has shrunk to +1% in just one month, an indication of the insecurity that travelers feel about vacationing in the area.
Meanwhile, it is no surprise that travel destinations in the Gulf region suffered huge losses in March due to travel advisories and cancellations by travel agents. Only in the United Arab Emirates, more than a quarter of winter revenues have already been written off.
At the same time, due to limited air connections, long-distance destinations such as the Maldives or Thailand, as well as markets such as Turkey and Egypt, are also severely affected by the decline in bookings.
In total, the decrease in bookings in March was 25%, while taking into account cancellations and new bookings, the decrease reached 49%.
As for the winter season, it still shows a 2% increase, however, this picture is fragile. The final revenues for the winter period have been formed at the same level as last year, but not all April departures to the Emirates have been cancelled, nor have all rebookings for long-distance travel via major air hubs been made. Also, the volume of new winter bookings remains far below last year, even in the first weeks of April.
For the upcoming summer season, the first signs of relief appeared during Easter (Calendar Week 16), with holiday bookings increasing again. However, by the end of March 2026, the summer period lost 4 percentage points from its previous increase and the total increase in sales has been limited to 3%. The occupancy rate achieved at the end of March was 59% – slightly lower than last year (61%).
