Approximately 307 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about 6 million more than in the same period of 2025. While the beginning of the year recorded overall steady travel demand (a cumulative increase of +2.5% in January and February), the conflict in the Middle East affected March’s performance (+0.4%), according to the latest data from UN Tourism.
The conflict is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on the conflict’s duration and scope. Aside from disruptions in flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveler confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets is increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity also in other regions.
More expensive travel coupled with uncertainty about air connectivity, could redirect demand towards closer tourism destinations while also affecting overall travel demand.
Against this backdrop, the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism presents the regional performance for the first quarter of 2026. Specifically:
Europe, the world’s largest tourism region, recorded over 130 million international arrivals in Q1 2026, marking a 4% increase and continuing the positive momentum of 2025 (+5%). Some destinations benefited from a redirection of tourist flows. Southern Mediterranean and Northern Europe saw a 4% rise in arrivals, while Central and Eastern Europe (+6%) continued its recovery.
Africa also recorded a 4% increase over the same period, with North Africa rising by 4%, supported by a strong double-digit growth in March (+18%). In Sub-Saharan Africa, arrivals also increased by 4%.
Asia and the Pacific posted a 3% rise in the first quarter, a rate below expectations due to mixed performance across destinations. Strong growth was recorded in February (+9%), while a softer performance was seen in March (+2%), as disruptions at Middle East aviation hubs contributed to a 27% decline in South Asia. Oceania (+9%) and Northeast Asia (+5%) delivered particularly strong results. Overall, arrivals in Asia remain 11% below pre-pandemic levels (at 89% of Q1 2019 levels).
The Americas recorded a 2% increase in international arrivals, with strong growth in Central America (+18%) but a slight decline in South America (-1%).
In the Middle East, arrivals fell by 14% in Q1 2026 due to the conflict. Several Gulf destinations posted significant losses, while Egypt recorded strong growth (+16%). This development follows the region’s strong post-pandemic recovery, with arrivals in 2025 up 40% compared to 2019.
Among the top-performing destinations in the first quarter of 2026 were Paraguay (+46%), New Zealand (+45%), El Salvador (+43%), Mongolia (+39%), Palau (+37%), and Uzbekistan (+37%).
In terms of tourism receipts, several countries recorded double-digit growth in Q1 2026, including Pakistan (+60%), South Korea (+38%), Morocco (+24%), Brunei (+22%), and Brazil (+12%).
Conflict in the Middle East and Rising Travel Costs
According to the latest Panel of Tourism Experts survey, the conflict in the Middle East, high transportation and accommodation costs, and broader economic factors are the three most significant challenges facing international tourism in 2026.
Nearly two-thirds of experts (64%) believe that the conflict in the Middle East is negatively affecting travel demand to their destinations, with 43% describing the impact as moderate and 21% as high. In contrast, 36% report little or no impact.
Around 61% of experts also note that the conflict is reducing inbound tourism flows to their destinations. However, 17% report an increase in inbound tourism due to the redirection of flows from other regions, while 14% observe a rise in domestic tourism, as some international trips are being replaced by internal travel.
Outlook: cautious optimism for the Northern Hemisphere summer season
The latest UN Tourism confidence index, which reflects the sentiment of 300 tourism professionals worldwide, points to a cautiously positive outlook for the May–August 2026 period, despite the challenging geopolitical environment. This period covers the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere.
On a scale from 0 to 200 (where 100 represents expected stability), expectations for May–August 2026 stand at 105, down from 117 for the January–April period.
Around 39% of experts expect better (34%) or much better (5%) performance over this four-month period, while 28% anticipate similar results to 2025. In contrast, 31% expect a worse or much worse performance.
Experts highlight uncertainty around the duration and scale of the conflict, disruptions to flight operations and reduced airline capacity, as well as rising oil prices and potential aviation fuel shortages, all of which are impacting travel costs, bookings, and consumer confidence.
Disruptions to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz have led to higher oil prices, particularly aviation fuel, which remains highly volatile. This increases transport costs in an already high-inflation environment for services, including tourism, putting pressure on demand.
Uncertainty surrounding the crisis has shifted traveller preferences, while also forcing airlines to reroute or cancel thousands of flights.
Against this backdrop, travellers are expected to continue seeking value-for-money options, while also favouring closer destinations due to higher costs.
In the Americas, Canada, the United States, and Mexico may benefit from hosting the FIFA World Cup 2026 in June and July.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: “The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation. This is placing pressure on travelers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people traveling internationally, a 2% increase on last year. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.” 
