After years of resilience that defied broader economic uncertainty, travel demand is showing signs of fatigue. This is the main conclusion of Deloitte’s 2026 Travel Industry Outlook, which records a more conservative attitude from both consumers and businesses.
During the 2025–2026 holiday season, more than half of Americans planned to travel—the highest rate since the pandemic began. However, behind this number lies a significant shift: fewer trips, shorter trips, shorter distances, lower accommodation categories, and fewer activities at the destination.
The primary cause is the growing economic pessimism, which now affects even high-income earners. The “anxious affluent class” – Americans with incomes over $200,000 who report negative economic sentiment – increased significantly in 2025. The percentage of high-income travelers with a negative economic sentiment increased to 15% from 9% in 2024.
This group is crucial for the market: they travel more, choose premium cabins, luxury resorts, and upgraded services. But when the economic sentiment worsens, it reduces the frequency and “tightens” the budgets.
Pressure on premium and mass-luxury products
Deloitte reports a “split” in the premium and luxury market. Ultra-luxury categories – rooms with a four-digit ADR and long-haul business class – remain resilient. In contrast, the more mass-market luxury category, with an ADR of less than $500 in most markets, may experience a slight decline.
A similar picture is seen in corporate travel. Among frequent business travelers (10+ trips per year), the percentage of those who expect three or more trips per month decreased to 53% from 63% in 2024. Less business travel means fewer premium bookings.
The overall picture does not indicate a collapse in demand, but rather a possible stagnation in key indicators if the conservative stance is maintained.
Gen Z and millennials dominate
2025 marked a turning point: Gen Z and millennials now account for 50% of travelers in the US. Gen Z nearly doubled its share of celebratory trips within a year.
The two younger generations differ sharply from the older ones:
- More than half of millennials and Gen Z use social media for planning, compared to just 1 in 7 boomers.
- 42% of Gen Z and 38% of millennials make sustainable decisions when planning a trip, almost double the rate of boomers.
- Despite lower incomes, they travel more frequently than older generations.
Millennials are leading the use of generative AI for creating itineraries, choosing hotels, and activities. At the same time, they show a strong sensitivity to cost, adjusting the budget according to economic conditions.
Gen Z, on the other hand, mainly uses short-form social video as a primary research channel and associates the concept of luxury more with room comfort and amenities (spa, fitness) than with brand prestige.
Generative AI: the market’s new tool
Nearly 25% of travelers used generative AI tools for planning by the end of 2025, a threefold increase from 2022. Adoption is no longer purely generational: older ages are also taking advantage of the tools.
Technology promises:
- More personalized offers
- Dynamic pricing and merchandising in real time
- Agentic functions that allow the user to assign research and booking
Deloitte estimates that gen AI will reinstate practices such as unbundling and flexible pricing models, changing the way brands become “visible” in the journey from inspiration to booking.
Source: Deloitte
Regulatory pressures and political uncertainty
2026 is also marked by intense regulatory activity:
- Stricter visa procedures and new fees in the US
- Potential requirement to provide five years of social media history for certain visitors
- Increased scrutiny of all-in pricing and “junk fees”
- New rules for data privacy and the use of gen AI, particularly in the EU (GDPR) and in US states
On the sustainability front, regulatory pressures are temporarily easing, but reporting requirements for emissions and carbon footprint are not being fully abandoned.
2026: Year of readjustment
2026 is projected as a year of adjustment for the global travel industry, with no signs of a generalized recession. Deloitte notes that strong post-pandemic momentum may be tempered as consumers and businesses move with greater economic caution. Sectors that have heavily relied on upgrading services and increasing premium revenues in the past years may face challenges, especially if the conservative stance becomes entrenched in the middle and high-income strata.
Overall, the picture that is sketched for 2026 is not one of a sharp slowdown, but a period of shifting balances. Demand remains, but it is distributed differently, with a greater emphasis on value, technology, and adapting to changing traveler preferences.
