The consecutive offers, the huge Black Friday discounts, and last-minute bookings are creating tension in the organized vacation sector in the US, which is controlled by those who are first in the global market.
The return of tourist agent offers to the British travel market is causing concern and worry, with the director of Travel Trade Consultancy, Martin Alcock, expressing his concerns at the Aito international conference in Asturias, Spain.
Mr. Alcock expressed his concerns about the increased market anxiety and the potential impact it may have on prices, citing the discounts provided by tour operators, including specialized ones, on Black Friday in a market characterized by last-minute bookings.
Overconcentration characterizes the market
According to him, the concentration of the market for organized holidays is at a high level, with the top 20 Atol holders now owning 86% of passenger capacity, compared to 74% in 2019. Meanwhile, the three largest Atol holders now control 53% of the market.
According to Alcock, market consolidation is not always bad news. It creates rational price management, but it also creates an environment where a wrong move can cause cascading negative consequences.
“The big ones get bigger and the market consolidates,” he said.
“The problem with all this is that the year that is coming to an end was a year with last-minute bookings in the mass market, and this continues and creates concern for large organizations with plans to increase capacity.”
The case of Thomas Cook
Mr. Alcock gave the example of Thomas Cook, who in 2019 tried to survive by offering large discounts and incentives, which resulted in the creation of “a completely dysfunctional market.”
Today, more and more travel companies are adopting Black Friday than ever before, and it’s definitely something that has started to penetrate people’s consciousness, he said.The question is what the impact of such a model on the market could be.
“This is a price-driven offer, and when combined with last-minute booking habits and discounts, are we reaching the peak of the market? Are we starting to see a bit more panicked price reductions? Most companies [Aito] don’t compete with mass markets, but often where they lead there is some pressure to follow,” Mr. Alcock said.
The capacity is increasing sharply
Mr. Alcock insisted that he is not particularly concerned about a “total price war” next year, but he stressed that “the number of passengers cannot increase indefinitely.”
“I don’t worry that there will be a total price war next year, but we are reaching the top of the market in terms of volume.The fact that the three top companies hold 53% of the UK’s population’s package market is very significant,” he noted.
Regarding the increase in capacity for 2026, he warned that “if combined with delayed bookings in the market, there may be a risk.”
