Spain will be the “leader” in global tourism in 2040, leaving France in second place, according to a report entitled “NextGen Travelers and Destinations”, jointly conducted by Google and Deloitte.
According to the survey, Spain will be the most popular tourist destination in 2040, with 110 million arrivals, followed by France (105 million) and the United States (100 million).
In 2023, France welcomed the largest number of travellers in the world, with Spain following in second place. While, the United States has yet to recover the number of visitors it welcomed before the pandemic.
Although France is the top destination for foreign travellers, it ranks fourth in terms of tourism receipts. The leadership in tourism revenues is held by the United States, with $176 billion in 2023, followed by Spain ($92 billion) and the United Kingdom ($74 billion).
World travel dynamics to 2040
The study examines the evolution of the travel industry since 1990 and projected developments up to 2040. It aims to provide a detailed understanding of traveler profiles and destination groups to help travel operators adapt to future trends.
The report also uses forecasting models to estimate that the number of trips worldwide will reach 2.4 billion, 936 million more than the 1.464 billion recorded in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The analysis predicts that the increase in travel will result from the growing middle class worldwide. Travelers from Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to account for more than 70% of trips. The top countries in visa issuance will remain the same as in 2019 (China, US, UK and Germany) with the addition of India.
In terms of arrivals, Europe and Asia-Pacific will account for 47% and 27%, respectively, with 1,120 and 640 million travellers, respectively. By 2040, the top five countries in terms of traveller arrivals will be Spain, France, the US, China and Mexico, which will account for 20% of total arrivals.
In addition, the Deloitte and Google study suggests that 45% of all global travellers will visit four key destinations: the Mediterranean (480 million), Southeast Asia (255 million), the New Middle East (175 million) and the Caribbean (145 million).
According to the experts, tour operators need to adapt to new source markets and technologies. While flexibility, hyper-personalisation and industry reshaping will be key factors in shaping business models.
Technologies such as artificial intelligence offer companies the opportunity to better define their future strategies. Such solutions can improve efficiency and productivity and contribute to a more sustainable tourism development by providing relevant data for businesses and users.
Factors that will shape the future of travel by 2040
– The impact of rapid technological development such as virtual reality, artificial intelligence, analytics and real-time translation.
– The changing profile of travellers due to factors such as ageing, longevity, sexual and racial diversity and inequalities
– Cultural and social changes include several variables such as the contrast between experience and product and the evolution of work.
– Business transformation includes declining economic health, a shortage of gifted individuals and lower barriers to entry.
– Climate change or renewable energy.
– The impact of the economy, geopolitics or cyber security.
